2.1 Introducing expected goals

An introduction and discussion of expected goals. Here are three videos: one by me, one by Duncan Alexander at Opta and one by Tifo football.

By now you should have got the idea!

2.2 Statistical models in football

Tuesday's lecture 10:15 -12:00 will cover statistical models for pass heat maps, possession and develop the idea of expected goals.

Notes from this lecture are available here.

The code for this lecture can be found here: https://github.com/Friends-of-Trackin...

2.3 The data used

This lecture goes step by step through the data needed to create an expected goals model.

The lecture above covers:

- Why Expected Goals are Important

- Plotting 2D histogram of shot and goal positions

- How probability of scoring depends on shot angle and distance

The code for this lecture can be found here: https://github.com/Friends-of-Trackin...

2.4 Fitting the model

The video above covers:

Fitting straight lines using linear regression
The logistic function
Fitting shot angle and distance separately
Fitting shot angle and distance separately
Working with regression tools

The code for this lecture can be found here: https://github.com/Friends-of-Trackin...

Specifically: 4LinearRegression.py and 5xGModelFit.py

2.5 Using expected goals in practice

References are:

https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/the-...

Pollard, Richard, and Charles Reep. "Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 46, no. 4 (1997): 541-550.

- Numberphile: Anatomy of a Goal - Numberphile

- Caley: https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation...

- Twelve xG: https://twelve.football/analytics?ana...

-Tracking data xG: https://twitter.com/jernejfl/status/1...

- Big chance: https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/foot...

http://business-analytic.co.uk/blog/e...

http://business-analytic.co.uk/blog/a...

- When to use xG: https://medium.com/@Soccermatics/shou...

- Twelve pass value: https://twelve.football/analytics?ana...

- Review of value models: https://www.americansocceranalysis.co...

Michael Caley on expected goals: https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation...

Trigonometry of shot angle: Morales, César A. "A mathematics-based new penalty area in football: tackling diving." Journal of sports sciences 34, no. 24 (2016): 2233-2237.

2.6 Pass success predictor

This is a graded exercise on evaluating pass quality. Deadline is Sunday 20th of September. See evaluating passes for details. We will discuss this in the tutorials on the 10th and 17th of September.

2.7 Guest lecture

Meghan and Dom from Stathletes explain how they measure chances in ice hockey. Please respect the creators wish that you do NOT share on social media. It is for use within the course only.